Developing Robust Rehabilitation Scenario Profiles for Life Cycle Cost Analysis

Abstract

Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is an economic procedure often used to compare competing pavement designs. For the LCCA to be meaningful and reliable, the analysis must reflect the most likely activities for each alternative being evaluated. Currently, most state highway agencies (SHA) apply a standard, policy-set, rehabilitation schedule to all pavements based on “historical” performance, which may or may not be representative of the given design. The fact is that there are many different rehabilitation scenarios that could be performed when the pavement requires rehabilitation and which one is selected will impact the results. This paper shows how SHAs can use the American Association of Highway and Transportation Officials’ (AASHTO) Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide to determine when rehabilitation activities are required, and Decision Tree Analysis to examine multiple scenarios of which rehabilitation activities are to be done. By using these two processes, it is possible to develop multiple rehabilitation schedules that are specific to a given pavement design, which makes the LCCA more robust and reliable. Finally, a case study is shown to demonstrate the extent to which these processes could affect the outcome of an LCCA.